OpenAI Negotiates New $30 Billion Round at $1.25 Trillion Valuation Ahead of IPO

OpenAI is in the final stages of a funding round that could reach $30 billion, at a pre-money valuation of $1.25 trillion, according to people familiar with the matter who requested anonymity due to the confidentiality of the negotiations. The round, led by Coatue and investors from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), would serve as a bridge step before an Initial Public Offering (IPO) expected in 2027.

The $1.25 trillion pre-money valuation does not include the capital being raised — which would bring the post-money valuation to approximately $1.28 trillion. If completed, the deal would make OpenAI the most highly valued private company in history, surpassing the previous record of $1.09 trillion held by Saudi Aramco after its minority stake in Aramco Oil Company (AOCO) in 2016.

From $1.4 trillion to $1.25 trillion: what changed

The current round represents a step back from last month's negotiations, when Bloomberg and Reuters reported the company was seeking to raise $30 billion at a $1.4 trillion valuation. The drop to $1.25 trillion reflects a combination of tech market volatility, rising interest rates, and hesitation among some investors facing ever-larger infrastructure spending requirements.

OpenAI has already announced that it expects to spend approximately $600 billion on computing infrastructure by 2030. This perspective of massive spending puts additional pressure on investors, who now demand not only revenue growth, but a sustainable profitability trajectory.

Revenue, profitability, and the growth challenge

According to CNBC, OpenAI operates with an annualized revenue of around $50 billion, an expectation that should reach $70 billion by the end of 2026, driven by the launch of the GPT-6 Astra model. The company is also in parallel commercial negotiations to secure additional computing capacity with the UAE — a strategy that combines capital investment with physical infrastructure.

OpenAI's business model relies heavily on selling model access via API and enterprise licenses. With ChatGPT reaching hundreds of millions of active users and the expansion of products like Canvas, Code Interpreter, and the new agent system, subscription and usage revenue has grown at a rate unprecedented in the software industry.

Still, pressure comes from two directions. On one side, competitors like Google (Gemini), Microsoft (models via partnership with OpenAI, but also with its own), and Anthropic offer alternatives that reduce exclusive dependence on OpenAI. On the other, falling prices for AI models — a practice that benefits customers but squeezes margins — also signals that the AI market is commoditizing at the basic layers.

The Anthropic shadow: a race for capital and timing

The timing of OpenAI's round is no coincidence. Anthropic, its direct rival, is preparing to launch its own IPO in mid-November, with a valuation ranging between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion, according to Reuters. Anthropic reported third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion — a 45% increase over the previous quarter — but with decelerating growth compared to the $11.6 billion of the second quarter.

Anthropic also reported adjusted profitability and had already filed confidential IPO paperwork with the SEC in June. CEO Dario has emphasized AI safety as a competitive differentiator, while OpenAI bets on scale, speed, and integration with autonomous agents.

The competition for investors between the two companies is direct — they share the same pool of sovereign wealth funds, asset managers, and institutional investors. Whoever goes public first sets the pricing benchmark for the other, and the cost of entering later can be significantly higher if the market turns down.

What to watch

OpenAI's investors have received an internal deadline: signatures must be finalized by the end of next week. But terms are still being negotiated, meaning the final valuation and round size may change.

OpenAI filed confidential IPO paperwork in June. CFO Sarah Friar told employees in August that the public listing would occur in 2027, while CEO Sam Altman expressed caution about market conditions. The difference between what Friar says internally and what Altman communicates publicly reflects the tension between the company's operational urgency and the prudence of defending a valuation before the market.

With the two biggest AI labs in the world racing for capital on overlapping timelines, what is at stake goes far beyond a single funding round. It is a test of which company can attract and retain investors in a spending cycle exceeding $600 billion, and which model — autonomous agents focused on scale (OpenAI) or safety as competitive advantage (Anthropic) — will prove sustainable when public market money finally enters.

Sources: CNBC, TechCrunch, CryptoBriefing

✓ Independent sources cross-checked and verified before publishing