OpenAI's Annualized Revenue Hits US$ 50 Billion, US$ 20 Billion Below Initial Projections

OpenAI has informed its investors that its annualized revenue stood at approximately US$ 50 billion as of late September, substantially lower than the US$ 70 billion figure that had been widely reported by news outlets earlier this month. The disclosure, first reported by the Financial Times based on financial documents shared with the board, reframes expectations about the true scale of the company's operations and raises fresh questions about the sustainability of the growth trajectory it had previously touted.

The discrepancy between the two figures — US$ 70 billion versus US$ 50 billion — stems from different accounting methodologies. According to the Financial Times, OpenAI's investors attempted to create a direct comparison with Anthropic, its closest rival in the artificial intelligence industry, and adapted OpenAI's accounting to include revenue from cloud partners such as AWS and Google Cloud. Anthropic explicitly counts these indirect sales in its own annualized revenue calculations, while OpenAI does not include them in its official figures. By applying this same accounting logic to OpenAI, investors arrived at the US$ 70 billion figure, which was subsequently reported by multiple news outlets, including Axios, which was the first to publish the estimate on September 29.

The adjustment to “OpenAI-standard” counting — excluding partner cloud revenues — resulted in the actual figure of US$ 50 billion, still impressive but significantly lower. It is important to note that OpenAI itself had not produced audited accounts for this period. The figures rely on unaudited estimates from anonymous sources, which complicates direct comparison with previous official company statements. In January, CFO Sarah Friar publicly stated, via Reuters, that the company's annualized revenue had exceeded US$ 20 billion in 2025, up from US$ 6 billion in 2024. This information was based on statements from the company itself, not third-party estimates.

The weight of infrastructure investments

The central tension between OpenAI's revenue growth and its enormous spending plans has been intensifying throughout the year. According to the Financial Times, the company projected a cumulative negative free cash flow of US$ 278 billion during the 2026–2030 period — a figure that not only reflects the ambition of its expansion plans but also the financial challenges facing almost the entire artificial intelligence industry. The cost of training and operating the world's most advanced models continues to outpace the revenue generated, even with rapid corporate adoption of OpenAI's services.

The sector-wide context helps illuminate the scale of the challenge. Anthropic, OpenAI's direct rival, saw its revenue grow twelvefold to nearly US$ 4.6 billion in 2025, but also faced a net deficit of US$ 42 billion. Anthropic itself plans infrastructure investments of at least US$ 518 billion over a decade, according to Reuters. The issue is not unique to OpenAI; it is a structural problem across the sector: the race for artificial intelligence capabilities is creating capital needs that far exceed any single individual revenue source in the current market.

What changes for the IPO

OpenAI had scheduled its IPO for early 2027, but the revenue situation may influence both the timing and conditions of that public offering. With annualized revenue significantly lower than initially projected, the company will need to demonstrate to public market investors whether the US$ 50 billion growth figure is sustainable or whether there is still room for further decline. Moreover, the lack of audited accounting raises questions about the transparency that regulated markets will require.

OpenAI itself has reduced prices on some of its models to attract cost-sensitive developers, a defensive strategy against cheaper competitors, both domestic and international. In August, Bloomberg reported that the company's monthly revenue had grown more than 20% in a single month, suggesting that momentum continues to be strong. However, a monthly increase does not necessarily translate to consolidated annual revenue — and the gap between the two figures can be enormous.

Whether OpenAI can reach the level of operational profitability needed to sustain its multi-billion-dollar infrastructure investments remains to be seen. The IPO in 2027 may provide the answer — if the market is prepared to receive it.

Sources: TechCrunch, Investing.com (via Financial Times), Roic AI

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